Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 36.808960 43.664615 51.238775 60.199126 70.479979 81.876338 95.433515
2024-10-20 29.225422 38.940568 50.743097 66.006139 85.076540 107.962032 137.330779
2024-10-27 21.278513 31.226272 44.287397 62.420875 86.630019 117.487232 159.383049
2024-11-03 17.972460 28.521926 43.260726 64.894186 95.284828 135.824154 193.221043
2024-11-10 15.850318 26.934046 43.272614 68.414619 105.270195 156.312237 231.087702
2024-11-17 14.041788 25.416072 43.025520 71.301437 114.349026 175.962194 268.940573
2024-11-24 12.019032 23.162885 41.267748 71.564419 119.390164 190.010920 299.589681
2024-12-01 9.937624 20.418666 38.297289 69.473013 120.474857 198.110599 321.857206
2024-12-08 8.638441 18.813119 36.947199 69.746236 125.112049 211.648384 352.817778
2024-12-15 7.662089 17.629385 36.137565 70.764282 130.915502 227.212669 387.619634
2024-12-22 5.993821 14.768121 31.906218 65.317319 125.396534 224.370693 393.366001
2024-12-29 5.430019 14.084609 31.636403 66.904552 131.935500 241.299647 431.371064
2025-01-05 4.467689 12.454603 29.519721 65.261723 133.450811 251.353606 461.171926
2025-01-12 4.333046 12.727010 31.345419 71.503507 149.970997 288.291109 538.502972
2025-01-19 3.400608 10.832346 28.290861 67.662911 147.403923 292.066416 560.154519
2025-01-26 3.081303 10.423903 28.414201 70.314100 157.380514 318.584396 622.458148
2025-02-02 2.867827 10.250401 29.040772 74.085833 169.845798 350.362683 695.766196
2025-02-09 2.635728 9.964303 29.348356 77.177343 181.180409 380.741781 768.224030
2025-02-16 2.290891 9.242902 28.460485 77.458914 186.752330 400.664039 822.842055
2025-02-23 1.889086 8.213806 26.595644 75.219415 186.790252 409.988851 858.451604
2025-03-02 1.646988 7.644041 25.842244 75.512020 192.236771 430.064080 915.099089
2025-03-09 1.464249 7.228172 25.438524 76.602191 199.499570 454.121157 980.480195
2025-03-16 1.106158 6.005832 22.465239 70.767558 190.636571 445.190177 981.975579